Vehicle Miles Traveled and Fleet Forecasts for Transition (59)
Description:
Updated forecasts for vehicle miles traveled and fleet growth are needed for use in detailed analyses of RUC program growth and transition. Because these forecasts
should use the most up-to-date values as a basis, they should be redone every time
the transition strategy is reexamined. Additionally, separate forecasts should be
performed for commercial and noncommercial motor vehicles.
Details:
This building block involves performing basic economic forecasts based on (and likely simply updating) the forecasts done in the planning stage (see Economic Forecasts building block), using standard economic forecasting tools.
Primary Use:
Prepare base data for analysis of transition.
Best Practices/Lessons Learned:
- Combining the vehicle miles traveled forecast and the fleet miles per gallon forecast gives fuel tax revenue forecasts, which should be calibrated to align with known existing data.
- Vehicle miles traveled and fleet forecasts will never be perfect predictors of future scenarios. All models are estimates to some degree, but these should be useful for planning purposes.
- Vehicle miles traveled and fleet forecasts should leverage forecasts already prepared for and by the state.
- Forecasts must cover at least 10 years into the future but ideally should cover 25 to 30 years.
- Historical reports from the International Fuel Tax Agreement Clearinghouse and the International Registration Plan Data Repository may be valuable in predicting commercial motor vehicle miles traveled and performing fleet forecasts.
State Government Context and Assumptions:
These analyses are done by economists under the guidance of the lead RUC agency.