ACRP Synthesis 2: Airport Aviation Activity Forecasting

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This synthesis report reviews current practices and methods in airport activity forecasting in the United States. The study addresses how airport forecasts are used and identifies common aviation metrics, aviation data sources, issues in data collection and preparation, and special data issues at non-towered airports. It includes an overview and discussion of available forecasting methods, including the primary statistical methods; market share analysis; econometric modeling; and time series modeling. The report focuses on appropriate forecasting methods, providing examples of actual airport forecasting studies. Evaluation of forecasts is also provided, including assessments of forecast uncertainty, accuracy, issues of optimism bias, and options for resolving differences when multiple forecast are available.

This synthesis report reviews academic and professional literature on forecasting, as well as airport master plans, state airport system plans, and other sources of information showing how forecasts of aviation activity are produced.

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Spitz, W. & Golaszewski, R. (2007). ACRP Synthesis of Airport Practice 2: Airport Aviation Activity Forecasting. Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C.

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