{"id":432,"date":"2022-12-27T07:58:41","date_gmt":"2022-12-27T07:58:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/webresources-uat.com\/nchrp1918\/?page_id=432"},"modified":"2022-12-27T07:58:41","modified_gmt":"2022-12-27T07:58:41","slug":"59-vehicle-miles-traveled-and-fleet-forecast-fortransition","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/crp.trb.org\/nchrpwebresource2\/transitioning-growing-stage\/59-vehicle-miles-traveled-and-fleet-forecast-fortransition\/","title":{"rendered":"(59) Vehicle Miles Traveled and Fleet Forecasts for Transition"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"ruc-block\" style=\"border-radius: 25px;border: 3px solid #9C7BA3;margin: 30px;margin-top: 40px;padding: 20px\">\n    <div class=\"container-contents\" style=\"margin-left: 25px;padding-left: 10px;margin-right: 25px\">\n      <div id=\"bbDIV\" style=\"min-width:45ch;max-width: 150ch;padding-right: 20px;margin-bottom: 25px;margin-top: 12px\"> \n          <div class=\"ruc-bb-head\" style=\"color: #818386;flex-wrap: wrap;width: 100%\"><a class=\"ruc-green\" style=\"color: #818386;font-weight: 600\" href=\"..\/research-and-planning-overview\/\">RESEARCH&nbsp;AND&nbsp;PLANNING<\/a>&nbsp;&nbsp;|&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a style=\"color: #818386;font-weight: 600\" href=\"..\/setup\/\">SETUP<\/a>&nbsp;&nbsp;|&nbsp;&nbsp;  <a class=\"bb-headinks\" style=\"color: #818386;font-weight: 600\" href=\"..\/ongoing-operations\/\">ONGOING&nbsp;OPERATIONS<\/a>&nbsp;&nbsp;|    <a class=\"bb-headinks\" style=\"color: #9C7BA3;font-weight: 800\" href=\"..\/transitioning-growing-stage\/\">TRANSITIONING&nbsp;AND&nbsp;GROWING<\/a><\/div><\/div>\n       \n      \n    \n    <div class=\"description-text\">\n    \n \n\n    <h1>Vehicle Miles Traveled and Fleet Forecasts for\n        Transition (59)<\/h1>\n    \n    <h3><strong>Description:<\/strong><\/h3> \n\n    <p>      <!-- ####  ICON LINK #### -->\n      <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"..\/..\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/31\/2023\/08\/Transitioning-and-Growth-building-blocks-icons_Vehicle-Miles-Traveled-and-Fleet-Forecast.png\" class=\"img-fluid\" style=\"float: right;width: 125px;height: 125px;margin-right: 1em;margin-left: 16px\">\n      <!-- ####  END ICON LINK #### -->Updated forecasts for vehicle miles traveled and fleet growth are needed for use in detailed analyses of RUC program growth and transition. Because these forecasts\nshould use the most up-to-date values as a basis, they should be redone every time\nthe transition strategy is reexamined. Additionally, separate forecasts should be\nperformed for commercial and noncommercial motor vehicles.\n    <\/p>\n    <hr class=\"rounded-green\" style=\"border-top: 4px solid #9C7BA3;border-radius: 5px\">\n    \n    <div class=\"details\">\n        <h3><strong>Details:<\/strong><\/h3>\n        <p>This building block involves performing basic economic forecasts based on (and likely simply updating) the forecasts done in the planning stage (see <b><i><a href=\"..\/..\/7-economic-forecasts\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Economic Forecasts<\/a><\/i><\/b> building block), using standard economic forecasting tools.\n        <\/p>\n    <\/div>\n    <hr class=\"rounded-green\" style=\"border-top: 4px solid #9C7BA3\">\n    <div class=\"primary-uses\">\n        <h3><strong>Primary Use:<\/strong><\/h3>\n        <p>Prepare base data for analysis of transition.\n        <\/p>\n    <\/div>\n    \n    <hr class=\"rounded-green\" style=\"border-top: 4px solid #9C7BA3\">\n    \n    <div class=\"primary-uses\">\n        <h3><strong>Best Practices\/Lessons Learned:<\/strong><\/h3>\n    <ul class=\"lorem\" style=\"margin-left: 30px\">\n        <li>Combining the vehicle miles traveled forecast and the fleet miles per gallon  forecast gives fuel tax revenue forecasts, which should be calibrated to align with known existing data.<\/li>\n<li>Vehicle miles traveled and fleet forecasts will never be perfect predictors of future scenarios. All models are estimates to some degree, but these should be useful for planning purposes.<\/li>\n<li>Vehicle miles traveled and fleet forecasts should leverage forecasts already prepared for and by the state.<\/li>\n<li>Forecasts must cover at least 10 years into the future but ideally should cover 25 to 30 years.<\/li>\n<li>Historical reports from the International Fuel Tax Agreement Clearinghouse and the International Registration Plan Data Repository may be valuable in predicting commercial motor vehicle miles traveled and performing fleet forecasts.<\/li>\n    <\/ul>\n    <\/div>\n    <hr class=\"rounded-green\" style=\"border-top: 4px solid #9C7BA3;border-radius: 5px\">\n    <div class=\"primary-uses\">\n        <h3><strong>State Government Context and Assumptions: <\/strong><\/h3>\n        <p>These analyses are done by economists under the guidance of the lead RUC agency.\n        <\/p>\n       <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n     <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>RESEARCH&nbsp;AND&nbsp;PLANNING&nbsp;&nbsp;|&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;SETUP&nbsp;&nbsp;|&nbsp;&nbsp; ONGOING&nbsp;OPERATIONS&nbsp;&nbsp;| TRANSITIONING&nbsp;AND&nbsp;GROWING Vehicle Miles Traveled and Fleet Forecasts for Transition (59) Description: Updated forecasts for vehicle miles traveled and fleet growth are needed for use in detailed analyses of RUC program growth and transition. Because these forecasts should use the most up-to-date values as a basis, they should be redone every time the transition &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/crp.trb.org\/nchrpwebresource2\/transitioning-growing-stage\/59-vehicle-miles-traveled-and-fleet-forecast-fortransition\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;(59) Vehicle Miles Traveled and Fleet Forecasts for Transition&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":95,"featured_media":0,"parent":397,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-432","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry","category-building-blocks","category-transitioning-growing"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/crp.trb.org\/nchrpwebresource2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/432","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/crp.trb.org\/nchrpwebresource2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/crp.trb.org\/nchrpwebresource2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crp.trb.org\/nchrpwebresource2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/95"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crp.trb.org\/nchrpwebresource2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=432"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/crp.trb.org\/nchrpwebresource2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/432\/revisions"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crp.trb.org\/nchrpwebresource2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/397"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/crp.trb.org\/nchrpwebresource2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=432"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crp.trb.org\/nchrpwebresource2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=432"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/crp.trb.org\/nchrpwebresource2\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=432"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}